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Will Iran shoot down a US military plane/helicopter by end of March?
379
แน€343แน€59k
Mar 31
39%
chance

Resolves based on trusted news sources.

Edit: Has to be a manned aircraft.

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bought แน€20 YES

Sorry if this has been asked already, but what about emergency landing as a result of ballistic strike on an aircraft? So not necessarily "shot out of the sky", but clearly grounded as a result of an attack?

@Qoiuoiuoiu If the pilot of the Kuwaiti F/A-18 that shot down the planes (U.S. F-15Es) happened to be found as an Iranian intelligence asset (sabatour, spy, sleeper agent, etc) would that count?

@DanzoAlerantos Ooh, good question! Yes, although they would need to be an agent of Iran (definitively connected to intelligence services) and not just a disgruntled Kuwaiti who sympathized with Iranians. Probably a high burden of proof here.

Do unmanned planes count?

@bens e.g. Iranian drone? Yes, this would count. Can you specify what you mean by unmanned plane?

@Qoiuoiuoiu I don't know if this is what Ben meant, but what if Iran shot down a US drone like a Predator? What about a kamikaze drone? (don't know if the US use them but still)

@Tomoffer No. Has to be driven by a human.

@Qoiuoiuoiu I feel like I'm being a prick here but, that isn't specified in the title or description...

@CourierSix A drone isn't a plane or helicopter. I think that's pretty clear cut but sorry if that was unclear.

@CourierSix I'll edit the description to make it more clear.

@CourierSix a drone is not a plane or heliphopter

@hidetzugu I am not saying that this counts 100% - but a potentially lethal drone is on AirNavRadar...

CENTCOM Commander Admiral Brad Cooper Iran's ballistic missile attacks have PLUMMETED -90% and drones are down 83% since day 1

is this guy a bot or something? who talks like this

@brianwang please link sources

@Balasar trump talks like that

30 iranian ships sunk, several of the mini sub sunk. The surface fleet other than some speedboats and several subs. https://x.com/nicksortor/status/2029685495416975550?s=20

Basra rumor quickly denied with no supporting evidence emerging. No claims have come with official admission or geolocated wreckage.

bought แน€500 YES

Looks like it was indeed Iran that shot it down, just across the border into Iraq!
https://x.com/sentdefender/status/2029660697697657210?s=20

opened a แน€500 NO at 74% order

@bens looks like US officials are continuing to deny these rumors, but I'm not sure these denials are correct, at this point.

https://x.com/sentdefender/status/2029670222349717937?s=20

@bens A US official has denied this report: https://x.com/lookner/status/2029667922247873019

That footage may not be related: https://x.com/faytuks/status/2029658805617783172

I believe it would have had to occur at least ~8 hours ago if it is legitimate.

@bens Although apparently CENTCOM deleted an earlier post denying a crash, and now they are denying that a plane was shot down.

@FergusArgyll assuming @Qoiuoiuoiu that Iranian proxy militias in Iraq would still count, yes?

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