MANIFOLD
Will Cuba still be a communist country on the following dates
46
Ṁ1.2kṀ4.6k
2030
62%
Jan 1, 2027
43%
Jan 1, 2028
35%
Jan 1, 2029
30%
Jan 1, 2030
25%
Jan 1, 2035
19%
Jan 1, 2040
Resolved
YES
Jan 1, 2025
Resolved
YES
Jan 1, 2026
Resolved
YES
July 1, 2024
Resolved
YES
October 1, 2024

Using Wikipedia’s characterization of the government type to resolve: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cuba

For clarity, communist in this case means Marxist-Lennist: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_socialist_states

Each year will resolve individually, so if the government changes form in 2026 and then stays the same from there on out, the both Jan 1, 2027 and the following years will resolve as NO.

Market context
Politics
Cuba
Us-Cuba relations
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Cuba has not been a communist country for a very long time.

@MaybeNotDepends Say more? I think the resolution criteria has not been triggered…

reposted

Cuba update: https://apnews.com/article/cuba-economy-cash-shortage-1bb0c49c286495c66a94e32feffc042d

Related market for China: https://manifold.markets/jdilla/will-the-chinese-communist-party-st-bf421e67eba9

reposted

Some good arbitrage available here - Oct 1, 2024 trading significantly lower than July 1 2024 or Jan 1 2025

Added June 30, 2024 and Oct 1, 2024 just to give us something nearer term.

@jdilla Edited June 30 to July 1 prior to any bets coming in.

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