MANIFOLD
Will a Republican win in the following US Senate 2026 elections?
96
Ṁ3.4kṀ37k
Nov 4
98%
West Virginia
98%
Wyoming
97%
Tennessee
96%
Idaho
96%
Oklahoma
96%
Alabama
96%
Mississippi
95%
South Dakota
95%
Montana
94%
Arkansas
93%
Louisiana
93%
Kentucky
89%
Kansas
88%
South Carolina
83%
Florida (Special)
70%
Texas
67%
Nebraska
59%
Iowa
52%
Ohio (Special)
49%
Alaska

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_elections

  • Update 2025-07-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - An independent candidate who caucuses with the Republican party will not count as a Republican for the purposes of this market's resolution.

Market context
Politics
US Politics
2026 US Congressional Elections
2026 US Election
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Does this include independents who intend to caucus with the Republicans, should there be any?

@EvanDaniel I’ll say no, as Manifold’s 2024 markets treated all independents as “Other” party.

bought Ṁ10 NO

Can you add Ohio and Florida?

@ZaneMiller Added

bought Ṁ25 YES

Susan Collins unbeatable

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