On February the 28th, two things happened: Trump declared the start of strikes on Iran. And Open AI announced a contract with the DOW, replacing Anthropic. In my view, the combination makes 2/28/26 "the biggest news day of 2026", with the January 3rd capture of Maduro being a close second.

I will personally judge this based on the significance of the event(s) in question. Most events occur over a number of days; but in order to resolve NO, candidate events must have a particular date of occurrence reported on in the major news media.

As events occur, betters are encouraged to convince me of their significance. I will resolve the market as soon as I am convinced that bigger news has been reported. Betters should think of this as a combination of the tail-events of other markets: I won't consider long-expected outcomes, but the midterms resulting in Republicans maintaining control qualifies. Trump dying qualifies.

Lastly, I will note that as time goes on, the events of 2/28/26 may seem more or less significant in retrospect. But I will consider connected-but-distinct events, such as a large ground invasion of Iran.

I will not bet on this market.